Source: China Electric Power News

At the turn of the year, multiple institutions lowered their forecasts for China's new PV installations. CPIA expects 2026 installations to drop from 2025's 315.07 GW to 180–240 GW, then slowly recover to the 2025 level by the end of the 15th Five-Year period. BNEF forecasts ~264 GW (AC) in 2026. Sinolink Securities notes 2026 will likely see the first negative growth since grid parity.

In Focus

Plummeting Growth Curve: Challenges and Opportunities for Distributed PV

"After hitting a new high in 2025, China's distributed PV installations will decline in 2026," said Hu Dan, Principal Analyst at S&P Global Clean Energy Technology, on February 4. Affected by geopolitics, domestic policy adjustments, and supply-demand dynamics, growth is weak — even strong European demand may not prevent a full-year drop.

Multiple brokerages agree. Central China Securities notes that grid absorption and capacity will constrain growth — utility-scale projects may rise, but distributed PV will slow. RMI and CPIA forecast that annual new distributed installations over the next two years will decline from the 2025 level (estimated ~160 GW).

Is the declining growth curve just a local issue for distributed PV, or a shared challenge for the entire PV industry?

Profit core broken, distributed PV's development logic faces reshaping.

During the 14th Five-Year Plan period, China's distributed PV industry followed a robust upward trajectory, becoming one of the most dynamic growth drivers in the energy sector.

NEA data: During the 14th Five-Year Plan, China's distributed PV additions surpassed 200M, 300M, 400M, and 500M kW successively. In 2022–2024, distributed PV accounted for nearly half of total new capacity. This success was driven by policy support and the "self-use, surplus-to-grid" model — offering high tariffs and stable consumption, attracting strong private investment.