Source：澎湃新闻

Spring has arrived, but the chill lingers. In 2026, China's PV industry will face further pressure.

Wang Bohua, advisor to China Photovoltaic Industry Association, forecast at a February 5 seminar that during the 15th Five-Year Plan period, global annual PV additions will reach 725–870 GW, with China at 238–287 GW. For 2026 alone, global additions are expected at 500–667 GW, and China at 180–240 GW.

The Paper notes that even in the most optimistic forecast, China's new PV installations this year will drop sharply from 2025. Last year's 315.07 GW will be a peak hard to match in the next five years.

Wang Bohua attributed the 2026 decline to recent policy changes (distributed PV rules, market-based grid pricing) causing market wait-and-see. He expects installations to recover as new policies (renewable integration, green power direct connection) take effect. Global demand may rebound after 2026, driven by India, the Middle East, and North Africa.